Ones to watch in Round three

Scotland v France

Scotland are riddled with changes as a result of their annual injury crisis but they still have a reasonable chance of winning this game, France have lost in Edinburgh four times since 2016 and they won’t be looking forward to a lunchtime kick off in a gusty Murrayfield whoever is or isn’t available to Gregor Townsend.  Despite the changes Scotland are still able to select their resident fun machine Darcy Graham who gets to line up opposite someone who played in the 12 shirt against Ireland in round two, the 21 year old Yoram Moefana.  Fabien Galthie has named a regular winger on the bench in the form of Toulouse’s Matthis Lebel so France may not yet be sure Moefana is a Test winger who can cope with Graham just yet (they also have their defensive leader Gael Fickou in the 13 shirt so they could swap if it’s all going a bit wrong), of course it was the threat Darcy Graham competing for a cross kick that led to Luke Cowan-Dickie slapping the ball off the Murrayfield pitch to concede the game winning try in round two.

Other than the pairing on the opposite wing (Damian Penaud is a challenge for anyone to defend) there aren’t many interesting match-ups.  Ben White against Maxime Lucu may well be important late on if the game is close, but that will all depend on their respective forward packs and an important part of that should be how the second-row pairings match-up, Grant Gilchrist and Sam Skinner have made 44 tackles between them in the tournament and missed none between them whereas Paul Willemse and Cameron Woki have made 29 between them and just 5.  Obviously, you don’t have to make as many tackles if you’re team is retaining possession but Scotland may well have some joy attacking close to the ruck and it’d be great to see Darcy Graham have a run at either Willemse or Woki. When it comes to ball carriers Nick Haining is a personal favourite and if the Scotland forwards can set a platform, he could have some real impact off the bench late on.

 

England v Wales

Courtney Lawes returns as Captain and Wales have British and Irish Lion Taulupe Faletau back from a lengthy injury break too but the real interest here is in the backlines, Max Malins has provided opposing defences issues all season against Italy his ability to stretch a defensive line provided a lot of gaps for England to attack.  Even though Malins is lining up on the wing and will cause problems out wide the space he creates will be in central areas as defenders are dragged away from the areas they’re responsible for and how Wales’ Centre pairing manage the defence in the middle of the pitch will be vital.  Nick Tompkins often abandons “gap discipline” to coin an NFL phrase in favour of pursuing the ball carrier and Owen Watkin (who carried the ball particularly well against Scotland) hasn’t played at 13 an awful lot for his region the Ospreys (who have been particularly poor defensively this season) so it would be understandable if he were to get to distracted or find himself slightly out of position against England’s “hybrid backline” (which is a terrible name by the way, they’re all rugby players hybrid makes it sound like they need to be charged up at halftime).  It’ll be interesting to see if Henry Slade appears as a first receiver as much as he did against Italy or if England decide to play a more structured game and kick more often (only Wales have kicked from hand on fewer occasions than England thus far).  A lot has been made of Harry Randall starting for England but it’s the forward battle that has more talking points for me, Tomas Francis and Ellis Genge really don’t get on very well after Genge tried to head-butt his opposing prop at a collapsed scrum in Llanelli back in 2020, Gareth Thomas and Will Stewart’s battle off the bench should be one area where Wales look to have an advantage, Stewart had a torrid time in Rome and was substituted before half time while Thomas has been quietly excellent so for Wales.  Alex Cuthbert will be looking forward to lining up opposite his former club teammate Jack Nowell too and both have suffered some serious injury woes over their careers so if they can both complete 80 minutes it’ll be a victory for both.

Ireland v Italy

Ireland have really mixed it up for the Italian’s visit but strangely there are more interesting players in the Italian team and changing so many players for Ireland looks like very much like the sort of selection that will lead to a disjointed performance from Andy Farrell’s charges.  There are some good players in the Italian team who have put up some impressive statistics despite being on the receiving end of two comprehensive losses and strangely the players who are expected to be the leading lights are the ones who have performed the worst.  Paolo Garbisi and Stephen Varney have looked like they have been given far too much responsibility for two players with just 26 caps between them.  The Italian back-row, particularly 23 year old Michele Lamaro who’s 41 tackles leads the tournament and this week’s second row pairing of Federico Ruzza (who’s made 19 tackles without missing one in just 136 minutes so far) and Niccolo Cannone who has put in 27 tackles of his own and has missed just 2 have been particularly impressive.  If the Italian halfbacks continue their profligacy with the ball then all the Italian forwards can do is tackle and Ireland have got more than enough firepower in their 23 to stumble through the entire 80 minutes and still win comfortably but given they need to win by more than 30 to keep in touch with the table toppers this team seems an odd choice.  Italian hooker Epalahame Faiva (who was a “Dream Team nominee in the 2019 Pro 14 season) always brings plenty of energy with him off the bench but he can overstep the line and concede careless penalties which could be costly, however if he can channel his energy he could be a match for Rob Herring on Ireland’s bench.

 

England v Wales 2022

England’s own errors cost them the game in Murrayfield, a combination of choosing to kick for the posts instead of going to the corner and Luke Cowan-Dickie finding himself on the wing to defend a cross kick against Darcy Graham made the difference in a game where they dominated both territory and possession.  In round two a combination of the 6 changes Eddie Jones made and an inexperienced referee made it very difficult to draw many conclusions from a 33-0 win over Italy, really the only standout from that game was Alex Dombrandt, so presumably he’ll retain his place this week against the nation he represented at Under 20 level (purely because he studied in Cardiff and was more of a cricketer before he attended University).  Wales on the other hand were easily brushed aside by Ireland in a windswept Dublin back in round one and then made 4 changes themselves before struggling to a 3 point win over Scotland who haven’t won in Cardiff since 2002.

Against Scotland England had 54% of the possession and in Rome that number improved to 59%, however the territory statistics from both games are significantly different, while they really dominated in Edinburgh with 62% territory and spent just 6 minutes and 3 seconds in their own half in the second game against Italy they only had 42% of the territory and spent almost twice as long in their own territory, 11 minutes and 58 seconds.  All this really displays is Italy didn’t really have a cutting edge in attack, they obviously scored 0 points per visit to the opponent’s 22 compared to England’s 2.5 points per visit (Itoje and Slade had tries disallowed so it could have been a much more impressive 3.6) but it mostly illustrates how unconcerned England were at the prospect of Italy regaining the ball in their half and counter-attacking.  Against Scotland England’s points per visit was just 1.2 as they preferred to kick goals rather than kick for touch compared to Scotland’s 3.4 (who only managed 1.8 against Wales as Wales managed some vital turnovers when defending in their own 22) so they haven’t exactly been at their most clinical so far in this tournament.

In Dublin Wales managed a measly 1 point per visit as they looked both overpowered (and conceded 14 penalties leading to just seven 22 visits) and impressively disorganised in both attack and defence (Ireland only managed 2.1 ppv as they missed kicks at goal and had a try ruled out by the TMO) but they improved to 2.8 ppv when they hosted Scotland as Dan Biggar kicked some close range penalties and a drop goal inside the 22 in addition to Tomas Francis’ rolling maul try.  In terms of possession and territory Wales’ statistics against Ireland were understandably poor (although they could have been much worse considering they only scored an interception try late on), they had just 43% of the territory and only 40% of the possession, although 48.3% of their possession was in their own half and they did spend half as long in Ireland’s territory than Ireland did in theirs (7 minutes and 42 seconds compared to 13 minutes and 50 seconds).  Against Scotland however they had 50% of the possession and 55% of the territory, a large part of that was a result of Scotland kicking the ball to Wales, according to the Six Nations own statistics Stuart Hogg kicked the ball 63% of the time he had it (compared to Hugo Keenan’s 19% the previous week), it’s also important to note Ireland’s kicking was much shorter and designed for them to retain possession which is something that you would expect England to learn from this week.  If Wales are looking for positives this week they definitely improved with the ball, but they have only scored two tries in two games.

Whilst Wales have definitely made progress in their attacking game their defence still seems worryingly fragile, they missed 22 tackles against Ireland (out of 231) and against Scotland where they had more possession they actually conspired to miss 25 (out of 226). If they are actually concerned about this is difficult to know though as their defensive strategy seems to involve creating turnovers more than stopping the opposition making easy yards, in an NFL parlance they’re happy to bend but don’t want to break. A lot of the tackles that are missed are in the wide channels as they almost deliberately defend very narrow (it seems nonsensical to leave the empty space they do out wide but a returning Jonathan Davies may correct the issues they appear to have with their “spacing”) as they resource rucks more than most teams in an attempt to win turnovers or penalties. Winning turnovers is a key part of their attacking plan which appears quite a risky proposition and requires a certain level of sympathy from the referee (although can also lead to attacking players losing ther discipline as they clear out defenders which is why so many players were sent off against Wales last season). Contrastingly England’s defence has improved, after missing 17 tackles in Edinburgh they missed just 10 against Italy (France only missed seven against Italy, but that’s Shaun Edwards for you), England’s defence coach is also a former rugby league player Australian Anthony Seibold and he puts a real emphasis on line speed (most do), but this has lead them to concede 5 penalties for offside in the first two games. The other reccuring discipline problem plauging England is at the breakdown, they’ve given away 8 penalties at the ruck so far and that either means they’ve been competing hard as Wales try to do but with more enthusiasm than control or that they’ve struggled to correctly resource their own rucks and had to hold on to the ball which will be music to Gareth Williams the Welsh breakdown coach’s ears.

England have scored 6 tries in the tournament so far but 5 of them came in the game against Italy who were really completely devoid of inspiration and by the end of the game had missed 19 of the 216 tackles they had been asked to make so it was by no means a sparkling attacking display from the visitors who had two tries disallowed by the TMO and made 14 handling errors as they struggled to gel as a unit. Both teams only managed a single try against the Scots though so this could be a very even contest and if it becomes a staccato affair with Mike Adamson being a particularly fussy referee who struggles to keep up with long passages of play it could benefit Wales. Alternatively a lot of set pieces should favour England who appear set to name a gargantuan team with the return of 113 kg Courtney Lawes in a back row with 110 kg Tom Curry and 118 kg Alex Dombrandt whilst Wales will be missing three of their most experienced forwards and the promising Christ Tshiunza.

Twickenham should be bathed in sunshine on Saturday and that could make for a really interesting game with an England backline who want to attack but haven’t really clicked just yet and a Welsh back three who want to counter attack from any loose kicks as they thrive running in a broken field. However the England backline will only be able to attack effectively with quick ruck ball and Wales will do everything in their power to prevent them generating that so it will be a battle in the contact area and how the officials interpret it may well decide the game. Wales haven’t won at Twickenham since the Rugby World Cup in 2015 and their last 6 Nations victory was back in 2012 so it would be a surprise if they left west London with a result this week and since this is their first home game in 2022 it wouldn’t be at all surprising if this is the game where England’s attack find their feet. The creativity of Max Malins out wide against the narrow Wales defensive line is setting off all sorts of alarm bells for me and with Louis Rees-Zammitt’s omission there’s a real lack of pace in the Wales team who have been struggling to score tries so the smart money is on a comfortable England win, 27-10 or somewhere in that ballpark.

6 Nations 2022 Team of Round 2

Wales won in unconvincing fashion in Cardiff in what may well be an indication that Pivac’s Wales will be more functional and effective than dominant and attractive.  France demonstrated their overwhelming power and undoubted ability with the ball in hand but still looked fallible in defence and for their part England looked very workmanlike as they overcame Italy without really translating their dominance onto the scoreboard, but which players starred this week?

1. This is actually a tricky pick; Andrew Porter is always impressive (maybe it’s the barnet?), Ellis Genge threw an outrageous pass which led to Jamie George’s second try and Cyrill Baille didn’t concede a penalty but at the risk of showing my own bias (my game, my rules) I’d have to pick Wyn Jones.  He was the only loose-head to not miss a single tackle and he didn’t concede any turnovers or penalties.
2. This one’s pretty easy in comparison, Jamie George scored almost a third of England’s points and whilst he did miss one tackle, he didn’t concede a penalty or a turnover and managed to win 2 turnovers.
3.  It wasn’t exactly a stellar weekend for tight-head props either, Tomas Francis did score a try and Uini Atonio did rumble for 20 metres from his two carries whilst not missing a tackle in 55 minutes but W.P Nel was the standout performer with a 100% success rate on his 9 tackles, 13 metres made and even a successful pass.
4. This one is really a two-horse race (with an honourable mention for Tadgh Beirne’s 50-22 kick that he performed with such ease that his halfbacks just looked daft), Will Rowlands made 11 tackles and carried for 64 metres in his 75 minutes on the pitch against Scotland but his opposite number Jonny Gray made a whopping 17 tackles in just 62 minutes and made 24 metres from just 6 carries and you could argue that Scotland really stalled after he left the field.
5. Adam Beard was a giant in the Welsh lineout with 5 takes but James Ryan’s shift was the most impressive in a 5 jersey during round 2.  He managed 11 tackles, missed none, made 6 carries and the most line-out takes of the weekend with 6 and he made 3 passes (only Ewels made more with 4).
6.  Francois Cros managed to steal a lineout for France but he only managed to take one on France’s own throw and Itoje carried but he only had to make 5 tackles and he missed one of them so Sam Skinner was the most impressive blindside of the weekend with 18 tackles made, none missed, 3 line-out takes and 27 metres made with ball in hand with two passes and no handling errors.
7. It’d take something very special for me not to pick Jac Morgan for his debut in a Wales shirt when he carried for 78 metres and made 13 tackles but Michele Lamaro was pretty special.  He carried the ball 8 times and managed 48 metres, kicked it for 23 metres, he made 2 offloads, won a turnover and mad an absolutely whopping 20 tackles!
8. It was a rough old week for 8’s with two of them not making it to halftime and Ross Moriarty making his first start since the Autumn so it was no surprise he was replaced after 58 minutes.  There was one outstanding performer though, Alex Dombrandt carried the ball 18 times for 128 metres and made 8 tackles without missing one.  His most impressive statistic though was the 4 turnovers he made which sees top if the tournament charts despite only playing n one game so far.
9. In this tournament how well a 9 plays really depends on what the coach ahs asked them to do, Tomos Williams made 12 tackles (almost double any other 9), Harry Randall really didn’t seem to fit Martin Gleeson’s plan, Jamison Gibson-Park played quite well but made two handling errors and failed to record a try assist (even though he scored one himself) so this (and every) week’s top 9 was Antoine Dupont with a try, a try assist, an offload and broke 3 tackles.
10. Well Marcus Smith scored a try and recorded an assist but Dan Biggar scored 75% of Wales’ points and dragged Wales to a much needed win as they look to defend their title.
11. This is a close one between Mack Hansen and Monty Ioane.  Hansen made 89 metres, scored one of the most audacious tries you’ll see in this tournament and made an offload but he was playing for a team who had 53% possession and averaged 4.2 points per visit to their opponent’s 22.  Ioane’s team on the other hand had 41% possession and averaged 0 points per visit but despite his team struggling Ioane still carried for 104 metres, broke 2 tackles and made 2 offloads.
12. Not many inside centres shone this week, only Bundee Aki recorded a 100% tackle success rate and since he didn’t concede a penalty or turn the ball over he’s the best of the bunch.
13. It’s tempting to give this to Jonathan Davies for his 15 minute virtuoso performance as he martialed Wales’ defence when it really mattered but he only hade to make 3 tackles himself so it has to be Chris Harris.  He made 10 tackles, made an offload, broke 2 tackles and carried for a whopping 100 metres on 9 carries.
14. Personally I’d give it to Alex Cuthbert who managed to look very good despite the rest of the Wales team struggling to find him with the ball. Max Malins on the other hand ran for 121 metres as both England and Italy managed to feed him the ball, he broke 3 tackles, made 2 offloads and made the only tackle he had to attempt.
15. Hugo Keenan looks like a man for a crisis, he was the coolest man in a green shirt while France were ramping up the pressure in the first half in Paris and Melvyn Jaminet looks increasingly impressive as a 22 year old playing Test rugby, likewise Freddie Steward who is a year younger and ran for 191 metres (fullbacks always run more since they catch the opposition’s clearance kicks) but Liam Williams’ 156 metres from 17 carries, 1 broken tackle and 1 turnover were vital in settling a very shaky looking Welsh defence in the first 60 minutes against a dangerous Scottish outfit.

Ireland v Wales 2022. It’s all uphill from here

Assessing Wales hopes in this game almost involves more qualifiers than you’ll see at the next US Open Golf tournament (156, come on people read a book), more “If’s” than an anthology of Rudyard Kipling’s poetry but I’ve got a spare 5 minutes, so here goes -#

• If the Welsh tight 5 can match their Irish opponents they’ll give the exciting backline to play on the front foot. However, there’s no Owens, Alun-Wyn, Navidi, Tipuric or Faletau so that will be tough.
• If Ryan Elias can channel his inner Ken Owens and defend as well as he carries the ball it will allow Taine Basham and Ellis Jenkins to disrupt the breakdown which could provide turnover ball for the backs.
• If Dan Biggar plays in the same postcode as the gain-line it will do the forwards a massive favour as our ball carriers repeatedly being stopped 10 metres behind the gain-line lead to numerous penalties being conceded in the autumn as we struggled to sufficiently resource rucks.
• If Tompkins and Adams are the new Gibbs and Bateman (no laughing at the back, it could happen) Wales could prove a serious threat to a very organised Irish backline.
• If Wales actually attack toward the left-hand side of the field then Louis Rees-Zammit won’t have to go looking for the ball and that should provide him with more opportunity to attack against isolated defenders.
• Conversely when Johnny McNicholl appears in the middle of the pitch it really causes opposing defences issues because he can ride tackles and has an innate ability to find space amongst the traffic.
• If Liam Williams can recapture his vintage form he is one of the most devastating attackers in rugby but recently he’s looked someone who is battling his body.

So, it’s not impossible but you’d have to be very optimistic to believe 7 things are likely to have concurrently in one of the two biggest games of the year for all of these players.